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Moneybag joe4/7/2023 ![]() Nonetheless, consensus estimates that the company will report massive revenues of $403.96B and a net income of $43.3B, representing immense YoY growth of 45.99% and 87.9%, respectively. Nonetheless, we are not concerned, since these will directly translate to its top and bottom-line growth moving forward, given the current limited supply.įor the next four years, XOM is expected to report decelerating revenue growth at a CAGR of -11% and net income at -14.88%. However, given that the company guided higher capital expenditures to increase its production and expand its refining capacity in the US, we may expect slightly reduced FCF profitability in FY2022, given the guidance of up to $24B in capex, nearly double YoY. ![]() XOM has also been holding its costs rather prudently in the past few years, with a total of $64.78B of operating expenses, on top of other expenses of $33.8B in the LTM. XOM Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins Furthermore, the company also increased its share buyback program from $10B to $30B through 2023, thereby indicating its massive liquidity for the next few quarters. As a result, XOM reported robust cash and equivalents of $11.07B on its balance sheet. In addition, the company also raked in a record-breaking $40.07B of FCF and FCF margin of 13% in the LTM, representing a gargantuan 761.7% growth from FY2019 levels. In the LTM, XOM reported $25.79B of net income with net income margins of 8.3%, representing a massive increase of 79.8% from FY2019. Though speculative, that would bring XOM's FQ2'22 revenue to an estimated total of $97.61B, representing an increase of 11.2% QoQ and 48% YoY. Assuming a similar repeat performance, we may expect to see the company report up to $9.9B for the upstream segment, $76.41B for the downstream segment, and $11.3B for the chemical segment. In addition, XOM would need to sustain its stellar YoY growth of over 80% for the upstream segment, 50% for the downstream segment, and 20% for the chemical segment from its FQ1'22 earnings call. Analysts will be comparing its upcoming performance with FQ1'22, when the company reported revenues of $87.73B and FQ2'21 revenues of $65.9B. XOM reported revenues of $306.87B in the last twelve months (LTM), with relatively decent gross margins of 31.8%. XOM Is Most Likely To Report Another Monster Quarter In FQ2'22 Despite an attractive buy rating from the consensus estimates with a price target of $103.18, we are slightly apprehensive, since the time of massive correction could be upon us soon. Market could be finally coming for these gas and oil commodities stocks. Based on the fact that the S&P 500 Index has declined by -13.02% in the past year while the United States Oil ETF, LP ( USO) and Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLE) have rallied by 73.48% and 36.12%, respectively, it seems like Mr. Yet, with the potential recession triggering a 17.6% plunge in XOM's stock prices, from a high of $104.59 on 8 June 2022, the market appears apprehensive about slowing demand moving forward. In addition, XOM reported excellent growth in its operating margins, net income, and Free Cash Flows (FCF) in the past year, thereby justifying the sustained gain in its stock price. It is also evident that the company had more than recovered from the slump in FY2020, since it reported impressive YoY revenue growth of over 55% in FY2021. Jwblinn/iStock via Getty Images Investment ThesisĮxxon Mobil Corporation ( NYSE: XOM) had rallied by over 150% in the past two years, from $34.32 on 16 March 2020 to $86.12 on 17 June 2022.
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